Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
06/0431Z from Region 1968 (N08W48). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(07 Feb, 08 Feb, 09 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
465 km/s at 06/0512Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 06/0218Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 06/0831Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Feb), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (08 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three
(09 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
one, two, and three (07 Feb, 08 Feb, 09 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Feb 191
Predicted   07 Feb-09 Feb 190/185/180
90 Day Mean        06 Feb 155

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb  005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb  007/008-012/015-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/35/35
Minor Storm           05/20/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    25/50/45

WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2014 Feb 07 1705 UTC
Valid To: 2014 Feb 07 1735 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2014 Feb 07 1616 UTC

Radio Events Observed 06 Feb 2014
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0248   0248    4300         0248        0000  
0550   0551    170          0551        0001  
0724   0724    130          0724        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.