Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 41 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
09/2331Z from Region 1967 (S13W89). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Feb, 12 Feb,
13 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
562 km/s at 10/2027Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 09/2231Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 10/0203Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1302 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Feb) and quiet levels
on days two and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Feb 161
Predicted   11 Feb-13 Feb 160/150/145
90 Day Mean        10 Feb 155

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb  011/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/15/15
Major-severe storm    25/05/05

Radio Events Observed 10 Feb 2014
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0501   0501    200          0501        0000  
0757   0757    440          0757        0000  
0851   0851    100          0851        0000  
1315   1315    290          1315        0000  
2051   2051    260          2051        0000  
2205   2205    110          2205        0000  
2247   2247    100          2247        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.