Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 44 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
13/0140Z from Region 1974 (S07W25). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(14 Feb, 15 Feb, 16 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 431 km/s at
12/2151Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 13/0904Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached 0 nT at 13/1353Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1686 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (14 Feb), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (15 Feb) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (16 Feb). The increased activity is associated with the
anticipated arrival of the CMEs observed on 11 and 12 Feb.

III.  Event probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Feb 167
Predicted   14 Feb-16 Feb 165/165/160
90 Day Mean        13 Feb 155

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb  015/025-028/040-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/40
Minor Storm           25/40/20
Major-severe storm    05/20/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/05/10
Minor Storm           25/20/30
Major-severe storm    60/75/55

Radio Events Observed 13 Feb 2014
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
1820   1821    120          1821        0001  
1825   1825    120          1825        0000  
1838   1838    110          1838        0000  
1858   1858    120          1858        0000  
1901   1901    170          1901        0000  
2056   2056    120          2056        0000  
2154   2154    180          2154        0000  
2206   2207    810          2206        0001  
2246   2246    1100         2246        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak
1905   2017    150          1907