Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 48 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
17/0304Z from Region 1977 (S10W16). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate on
day one (18 Feb) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on days two and three (19 Feb, 20 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
442 km/s at 17/1655Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 17/2137Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 17/1856Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb, 20
Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
Class M    60/45/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Feb 152
Predicted   18 Feb-20 Feb 145/135/135
90 Day Mean        17 Feb 154

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb  014/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05

Radio Events Observed 17 Feb 2014
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0306   0340    780          0312        0034  
0453   0454    280          0453        0001  
0904   0905    130          0904        0001  
0919   0921    120          0919        0002  
1513   1513    260          1513        0000  
1523   1523    200          1523        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak
0340   0657    130          0344