Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 51 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 20/0756Z from Region 1976 (S14W82). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb, 23 Feb). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 743 km/s at 20/0440Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 20/0323Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 20/0507Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 22 pfu at 20/0925Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (21 Feb) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb). III. Event probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb Class M 35/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 20 Feb 156 Predicted 21 Feb-23 Feb 155/160/165 90 Day Mean 20 Feb 155 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb 030/042 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb 025/038 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb 015/020-013/012-012/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/30/30 Minor Storm 20/10/10 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 50/40/40 Radio Events Observed 20 Feb 2014 A. 245 MHz Bursts Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak Duration 0744 0751 250 0744 0007 1136 1136 100 1136 0000 1226 1226 100 1226 0000 1842 1842 110 1842 0000 1950 1951 220 1950 0001 B. 245 MHz Noise Storms Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak 2000 2024 180 2003 Space Weather Message Code: SUMSUD Serial Number: 187 Issue Time: 2014 Feb 20 0339 UTC SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse Observed: 2014 Feb 20 0329 UTC Deviation: 31 nT Station: BOU
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