Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 55 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
24/1205Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(25 Feb, 26 Feb, 27 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
589 km/s at 24/0550Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 23/2224Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 23/2101Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (25 Feb, 27
Feb) and quiet levels on day two (26 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Feb 171
Predicted 25 Feb-27 Feb 175/180/180
90 Day Mean 24 Feb 157
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb 012/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb 008/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb 009/008-006/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/25
Major-severe storm 20/05/25
Radio Events Observed 24 Feb 2014
A. 245 MHz Bursts
Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak Duration
0247 0247 140 0247 0000
1201 1204 930 1203 0003
1312 1312 100 1312 0000
1446 1446 950 1446 0000
1900 1901 330 1900 0001
B. 245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales
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