Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 58 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 27/1230Z from Region 1991 (S25E52). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Feb, 01 Mar, 02 Mar). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 519 km/s at 27/1936Z. Total IMF reached 22 nT at 27/1752Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -18 nT at 27/1810Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 58 pfu at 27/1845Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 245 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (28 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (01 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (02 Mar). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (28 Feb), are likely to cross threshold on day two (01 Mar) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (02 Mar). III. Event probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar Class M 70/70/70 Class X 30/30/30 Proton 99/70/50 PCAF red IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 27 Feb 176 Predicted 28 Feb-02 Mar 175/170/170 90 Day Mean 27 Feb 158 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb 011/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar 019/025-009/008-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/20/05 Minor Storm 25/05/01 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/20/15 Minor Storm 25/25/15 Major-severe storm 55/25/05 Radio Events Observed 27 Feb 2014 A. 245 MHz Bursts Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak Duration 1044 1044 110 1044 0000 1251 1252 230 1252 0001 1258 1258 110 1258 0000 1258 1258 100 1258 0000 1631 1631 130 1631 0000 1756 1756 100 1756 0000 B. 245 MHz Noise Storms Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak 1653 1656 110 1655 Space Weather Message Code: SUMSUD Serial Number: 188 Issue Time: 2014 Feb 27 1701 UTC SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse Observed: 2014 Feb 27 1653 UTC Deviation: 22 nT Station: HAD
For current space weather conditions please refer to:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/index.html#SolarRadiationStorms NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales
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