Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 6 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 06/0019Z from Region 1944 (S09E11). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Jan, 08 Jan, 09 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 421 km/s at 05/2123Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 42 pfu at 06/1600Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at 06/1005Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 618 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (07 Jan), quiet to active levels on day two (08 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (09 Jan). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (07 Jan), are likely to cross threshold on day two (08 Jan) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (09 Jan). III. Event probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan Class M 75/75/75 Class X 30/30/30 Proton 99/70/30 PCAF yellow IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 06 Jan 204 Predicted 07 Jan-09 Jan 200/195/195 90 Day Mean 06 Jan 149 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan 004/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan 015/018-012/018-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 45/45/15 Minor Storm 35/15/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/10/20 Minor Storm 20/30/30 Major-severe storm 70/60/25 Radio Events Observed 06 Jan 2014 A. 245 MHz Bursts Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak Duration 0235 0236 140 0235 0001 0248 0248 900 0248 0000 0747 0747 120 0747 0000 1210 1212 120 1211 0002 1353 1355 420 1354 0002 1414 1414 290 1414 0000 1658 1658 160 1658 0000 2210 2212 530 2211 0002 B. 245 MHz Noise Storms Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak 0235 0701 390 0640 WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected Valid From: 2014 Jan 07 1505 UTC Valid To: 2014 Jan 07 1535 UTC IP Shock Passage Observed: 2014 Jan 07 1425 UTC SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse Observed: 2014 Jan 07 1515 UTC Deviation: 7 nT Station: BOU ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu Threshold Reached: 2014 Jan 07 1525 UTC Station: GOES13
For current space weather conditions please refer to:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/index.html#SolarRadiationStorms NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales |