Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 13 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
13/1633Z from Region 1953 (S18W13). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (14 Jan) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an
M-class flare on days two and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
922 km/s at 13/0724Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 13/1006Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 13/0225Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at
12/2335Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 200 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan, 16
Jan). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on
day one (14 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
Class M    50/10/10
Class X    15/01/01
Proton     30/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jan 143
Predicted   14 Jan-16 Jan 135/135/140
90 Day Mean        13 Jan 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan-16 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05

Radio Events Observed 13 Jan 2014
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0411   0412    270          0412        0001  
0419   0419    140          0419        0000  
0421   0421    130          0421        0000  
0539   0539    100          0539        0000  
0633   0633    140          0633        0000  
0639   0639    120          0639        0000  
0639   0639    130          0639        0000  
0700   0700    130          0700        0000  
0711   0713    170          0713        0002  
1241   1241    100          1241        0000  
1311   1311    100          1311        0000  
1315   1315    110          1315        0000  
1329   1329    110          1329        0000  
2058   2058    100          2058        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.