Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 23 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (24
Jan, 25 Jan, 26 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
525 km/s at 22/2108Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 23/0042Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 23/0258Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26
Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Jan 136
Predicted   24 Jan-26 Jan 135/130/130
90 Day Mean        23 Jan 152

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jan  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05

Radio Events Observed 23 Jan 2014
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0655   0655    100          0655        0000  
0417   0417    130          0417        0000  
0718   0718    200          0718        0000  
0841   0841    100          0841        0000  
0959   0959    100          0959        0000  
1120   1124    130          1120        0004  
1152   1152    100          1152        0000  
1224   1224    110          1224        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak
0532   0716    160          0548              

Radio Events Observed 22 Jan 2014
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
2042   2043    3100         2042        0001  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.