Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 30 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
30/1611Z from Region 1967 (S14E41). It also produced a Type II (2161
km/s) radio emission, a Tenflare (220 sfu) and a coronal mass ejection
which may have an Earth-directed component.  Analysis is underway. 
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(31 Jan, 01 Feb, 02 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
452 km/s at 30/0544Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 29/2100Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 30/0203Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (31 Jan, 01 Feb, 02
Feb). However, the potential for a glancing blow as early as Day 2 (01
Feb) from the CME described above could push the geomagnetic field to
unsettled to active levels with a slight chance for a minor (G1) storm
period.  We'll refrain from adding that to this forecast until after we
have examined the WSA-Enlil model output.

III.  Event probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Jan 161
Predicted   31 Jan-02 Feb 165/170/175
90 Day Mean        30 Jan 152

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb  005/012-006/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05

Radio Events Observed 30 Jan 2014
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
1601   1608    200          1607        0007  
1649   1650    120          1649        0001  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.