Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 1 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at
01/1852Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Jan, 03
Jan, 04 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
607 km/s at 01/2100Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 01/1334Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 01/1334Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (02 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (03 Jan, 04 Jan). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (02 Jan,
03 Jan, 04 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Jan 160
Predicted   02 Jan-04 Jan 160/160/165
90 Day Mean        01 Jan 144

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec  006/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan  011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan  014/020-011/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan-04 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/15
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    40/25/20

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 2 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
02/0233Z from Region 1944 (S08E64). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Jan, 04
Jan, 05 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 666 km/s at 02/2059Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 01/2155Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 02/0152Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1780
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (03 Jan, 04 Jan)
and quiet levels on day three (05 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (03 Jan, 04 Jan, 05 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Jan 161
Predicted   03 Jan-05 Jan 165/170/170
90 Day Mean        02 Jan 145

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan  011/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan  015/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan  011/010-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/05
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/15
Major-severe storm    25/20/05

ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2014 Jan 02 1855 UTC
Station: GOES13

Radio Events Observed 01 Jan 2014
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0229   0229    100          0229        0000  
0723   0726    120          0726        0003  
2152   2152    120          2152        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.