Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 8 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M3 event observed at
08/0347Z from Region 1947 (N11W98). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10
Jan, 11 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
398 km/s at 07/2141Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 08/2017Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 07/2352Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 972 pfu at
08/2030Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4 pfu at 07/2240Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 792 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to severe storm levels on day one (09 Jan), unsettled to
severe storm levels on day two (10 Jan) and unsettled to active levels
on day three (11 Jan). Protons are expected to cross threshold on days
one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
Class M    80/80/80
Class X    50/50/50
Proton     99/99/99
PCAF       red

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Jan 195
Predicted   09 Jan-11 Jan 195/195/195
90 Day Mean        08 Jan 151

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan  041/073-025/041-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan-11 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/45
Minor Storm           35/30/10
Major-severe storm    50/50/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                01/05/10
Minor Storm           10/15/30
Major-severe storm    90/85/50

Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Begin Time: 2014 Jan 07 2235 UTC
Maximum Time: 2014 Jan 09 0340 UTC
End Time: 2014 Jan 10 0530 UTC
Maximum 10MeV Flux: 1033 pfu
NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong

Radio Events Observed 09 Jan 2014
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
1907   1907    140          1907        0000  
2120   2120    120          2120        0000  
2217   2217    130          2217        0000  
2237   2237    120          2237        0000  
2300   2301    330          2300        0001  
2318   2319    130          2318        0001  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak
1235   1821    370          1550        

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:

Jan 08:  None (Below G1)   Jan 09:  G3 (Strong)   Jan 10:  G3 (Strong)

Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2014 Jan 09 2010 UTC
Deviation: 12 nT
Station: FRN

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 9 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
09/0216Z from Region 1946 (N09W35). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Jan, 11
Jan, 12 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
527 km/s at 09/1947Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 09/2008Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 09/0114Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1026 pfu at
09/0340Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3073 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (10 Jan), unsettled
to active levels on day two (11 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day
three (12 Jan). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (10
Jan), are expected to cross threshold on day two (11 Jan) and are likely
to cross threshold on day three (12 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    35/35/35
Proton     99/90/70
PCAF       red

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jan 184
Predicted   10 Jan-12 Jan 180/180/180
90 Day Mean        09 Jan 152

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan  008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan  015/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan  025/040-017/015-012/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/45/35
Minor Storm           30/10/05
Major-severe storm    50/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor Storm           15/30/35
Major-severe storm    85/50/45