OPEC sees 2015 call on own crude down 300,000 b/d at 29.4 mil b/d

London (Platts)--10Jul2014/732 am EDT/1132 GMT

Rising supply from non-OPEC producers will more than meet expected growth in world oil demand next year, forcing OPEC to cut its forecast of demand for its own crude by 300,000 b/d, the cartel's Vienna secretariat said Thursday in its latest monthly oil market report.

Issuing its first estimates for 2015, OPEC said it expected demand for crude produced by its 12 members to fall to 29.4 million b/d. It has kept the 2014 forecast broadly unchanged at 29.7 million b/d.

Non-OPEC supply is seen growing by 1.3 million b/d to 57 million b/d in 2015 while world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.2 million b/d to 92.3 million b/d.

OECD demand is expected to rise -- by a modest 40,000 b/d -- for the first time since 2010, with the Americas the only region showing growth and Europe expected to decline further.

"The above forecasts suggest a demand for OPEC crude of 29.4 million b/d in 2015, a decline of 300,000 b/d from the current year," OPEC said.

"Therefore, even if next year's world economic growth turns out to be better than expected and crude oil demand outperforms expectations, OPEC will have sufficient supply to provide to the market."

OPEC said its crude output fell by 80,000 b/d to 29.7 million b/d in June from 29.78 million b/d in May. The group uses secondary sources to monitor its production.

--Margaret McQuaile, margaret.mcquaile@platts.com
--Edited by Maurice Geller, maurice.geller@platts.com

 

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