Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
07/0802Z from Region 2109 (S10E09). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(08 Jul, 09 Jul, 10 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 373 km/s at
07/1659Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 07/1946Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -8 nT at 07/1740Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Jul), unsettled levels
on day two (09 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (10 Jul). Protons have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (08
Jul, 09 Jul, 10 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Jul 198
Predicted   08 Jul-10 Jul 200/200/190
90 Day Mean        07 Jul 135

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jul  006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jul  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul  009/010-011/012-007/007

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    25/20/10

Radio Events Observed 07 Jul 2014
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
1052   1052    380          1052        0000  
1951   1951    210          1951        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak
1310   1419    170          1411