Report of Solar Geophysical Activity


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
30/0419Z from Region 2104 (S11E51). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Jul, 02 Jul,
03 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
375 km/s at 29/2139Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 29/2219Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 29/2221Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (01 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (02 Jul, 03 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Jun 141
Predicted   01 Jul-03 Jul 150/155/155
90 Day Mean        30 Jun 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jun  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul  006/005-007/008-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/20/20
adio Events Observed 30 Jun 2014
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0154   0154    110          0154        0000  
0204   0204    170          0204        0000  
0211   0211    320          0211        0000  
0234   0234    110          0234        0000  
0240   0240    110          0240        0000  
0317   0317    150          0317        0000  
0345   0346    130          0346        0001  
0349   0350    130          0349        0001  
0446   0446    120          0446        0000  
0536   0536    170          0536        0000  
0656   0656    210          0656        0000  
0712   0712    130          0712        0000  
1108   1109    160          1108        0001  
1419   1419    160          1419        0000  
1648   1648    110          1648        0000  
1802   1802    110          1802        0000  
1817   1817    170          1817        0000  
1919   1919    110          1919        0000  
2015   2015    100          2015        0000  
2118   2118    100          2118        0000  
2125   2125    110          2125        0000  
2219   2220    250          2220        0001  
2254   2254    100          2254        0000  
2349   2350    220          2349        0001  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak
1416   1419    220          1419              
1645   2035    190          1817         
Radio Events Observed 29 Jun 2014
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0047   0047    110          0047        0000  
1013   1013    430          1013        0000  
1720   1720    140          1720        0000  
1719   1719    120          1719        0000  
1847   1847    100          1847        0000  
1847   1847    100          1847        0000  
2229   2229    120          2229        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.
     
**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****

Summary For June 23-29

No G1 or greater geomagnetic storms were observed.
No R1 or greater radio blackouts were observed.
No S1 or greater solar radiation storms were observed.

Outlook For June 30-July 6

No G1 or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.
No R1 or greater radio blackouts are expected.
No S1 or greater solar radiation storms are expected.

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at

www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales