Report of Solar Geophysical ActivityJoint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 30/0419Z from Region 2104 (S11E51). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Jul, 02 Jul, 03 Jul). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 375 km/s at 29/2139Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 29/2219Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 29/2221Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (01 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (02 Jul, 03 Jul). III. Event probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Jun 141 Predicted 01 Jul-03 Jul 150/155/155 90 Day Mean 30 Jun 132 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jun 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul 006/005-007/008-009/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/15/15 Minor Storm 01/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/20/20 Major-severe storm 05/20/20 adio Events Observed 30 Jun 2014 A. 245 MHz Bursts Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak Duration 0154 0154 110 0154 0000 0204 0204 170 0204 0000 0211 0211 320 0211 0000 0234 0234 110 0234 0000 0240 0240 110 0240 0000 0317 0317 150 0317 0000 0345 0346 130 0346 0001 0349 0350 130 0349 0001 0446 0446 120 0446 0000 0536 0536 170 0536 0000 0656 0656 210 0656 0000 0712 0712 130 0712 0000 1108 1109 160 1108 0001 1419 1419 160 1419 0000 1648 1648 110 1648 0000 1802 1802 110 1802 0000 1817 1817 170 1817 0000 1919 1919 110 1919 0000 2015 2015 100 2015 0000 2118 2118 100 2118 0000 2125 2125 110 2125 0000 2219 2220 250 2220 0001 2254 2254 100 2254 0000 2349 2350 220 2349 0001 B. 245 MHz Noise Storms Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak 1416 1419 220 1419 1645 2035 190 1817 Radio Events Observed 29 Jun 2014 A. 245 MHz Bursts Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak Duration 0047 0047 110 0047 0000 1013 1013 430 1013 0000 1720 1720 140 1720 0000 1719 1719 120 1719 0000 1847 1847 100 1847 0000 1847 1847 100 1847 0000 2229 2229 120 2229 0000 B. 245 MHz Noise Storms No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed. **** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK **** Summary For June 23-29 No G1 or greater geomagnetic storms were observed. No R1 or greater radio blackouts were observed. No S1 or greater solar radiation storms were observed. Outlook For June 30-July 6 No G1 or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No R1 or greater radio blackouts are expected. No S1 or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
For current space weather conditions please refer to:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/index.html#SolarRadiationStorms NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales |