Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
10/0253Z from Region 2106 (N16W75). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(11 Jul, 12 Jul, 13 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
420 km/s at 10/1858Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 10/0036Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 10/0035Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (11 Jul, 12 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (13 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (11 Jul, 12 Jul, 13 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jul 177
Predicted   11 Jul-13 Jul 175/160/150
90 Day Mean        10 Jul 137

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul  006/005-006/005-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           20/15/30
Major-severe storm    10/15/25