Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
24/0151Z from Region 2121 (N07E45). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (25 Jul, 26 Jul)
and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day
three (27 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
409 km/s at 24/1152Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 23/2312Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 24/1022Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (25 Jul, 26 Jul)
and quiet levels on day three (27 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
Class M    01/05/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jul 104
Predicted   25 Jul-27 Jul 110/115/125
90 Day Mean        24 Jul 129

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul  007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jul  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul  008/008-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    15/15/10