Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 209 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jul 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
28/1410Z from Region 2125 (S13E46). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Jul,
30 Jul, 31 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
455 km/s at 28/1327Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 28/0605Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 28/0609Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (29 Jul) and quiet levels
on days two and three (30 Jul, 31 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Jul 132
Predicted   29 Jul-31 Jul 140/140/145
90 Day Mean        28 Jul 129

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jul  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jul  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    15/15/15