Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jun 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
09/1229Z from Region 2085 (S20W16). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (10 Jun, 11 Jun, 12 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 645 km/s at
08/2205Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 09/0213Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 09/0721Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (10 Jun, 11 Jun, 12
Jun). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (10 Jun, 11 Jun, 12 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/15/20
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Jun 161
Predicted   10 Jun-12 Jun 165/165/165
90 Day Mean        09 Jun 138

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jun   029/037
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jun  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05