Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
12/1021Z from Region 2087 (S18E43). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Jun, 14
Jun, 15 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 570 km/s at
12/0203Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 12/2021Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -2 nT at 12/0119Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 148 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (13 Jun, 14 Jun) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (15 Jun). Protons have a chance
of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (13 Jun, 14 Jun, 15
Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     30/30/30
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jun 175
Predicted   13 Jun-15 Jun 170/165/155
90 Day Mean        12 Jun 139

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jun  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun  012/018-016/020-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/20
Minor Storm           20/25/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/10
Major-severe storm    50/25/05

Radio Events Observed 12 Jun 2014
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0452   0452    120          0452        0000  
0537   0537    130          0537        0000  
0933   0935    150          0935        0002  
0951   0951    150          0951        0000  
1017   1018    450          1017        0001  
1223   1223    120          1223        0000  
1315   1315    100          1315        0000  
1502   1502    110          1502        0000  
1523   1524    130          1524        0001  
1527   1527    100          1527        0000  
1603   1606    370          1606        0003  
1706   1706    110          1706        0000  
1728   1728    140          1728        0000  
1757   1757    130          1757        0000  
1808   1809    220          1808        0001  
1829   1830    160          1829        0001  
2117   2117    180          2117        0000  
2125   2125    130          2125        0000  
2156   2157    180          2157        0001  
2204   2205    340          2204        0001  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak
1613   1632    130          1613