Report of Solar Geophysical Activity
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 16/0001Z from Region 2087 (S18W08). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (17 Jun) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and three (18 Jun, 19 Jun). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 396 km/s at 16/1913Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 16/0526Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 16/1215Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Jun) and quiet levels on days two and three (18 Jun, 19 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold throughout the period (17-19 Jun). III. Event probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun Class M 55/50/50 Class X 20/15/10 Proton 20/15/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Jun 117 Predicted 17 Jun-19 Jun 115/115/110 90 Day Mean 16 Jun 139 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun 009/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jun 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun 008/008-007/008-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/05 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/10 Major-severe storm 20/15/05 Radio Events Observed 16 Jun 2014 A. 245 MHz Bursts Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak Duration 0241 0241 110 0241 0000 0517 0517 110 0517 0000 B. 245 MHz Noise Storms No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed. Official Space Weather Advisory issued by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado, USA SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #14-24 2014 June 15 at 9:33 p.m. MDT (2014 June 16 0333 UTC) **** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK **** Summary For June 9-15 No G1 or greater geomagnetic storms were observed. R3 (Strong) radio blackouts were observed on 10-11 Jun. R1 (Minor) radio blackouts were observed on 11-15 Jun. No S1 or greater solar radiation storms were observed. Outlook For June 16-22 No G1 or greater geomagnetic storms are expected during the forecast period. R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely on 16-17 Jun with a chance of R1-R2 conditions for the remainder of the forecast period. No S1 or greater solar radiation storms are expected during the forecast period.
For current space weather conditions please refer to:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/index.html#SolarRadiationStorms NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales
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