Report of Solar Geophysical Activity
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
19/1924Z from Region 2093 (S10E21). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk. There was also a 24 degree filament
eruption between 19/1530-1655 UTC centered near S01E12.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (20 Jun, 21 Jun) and
likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (22 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 500 km/s at 19/0636Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 18/2248Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 18/2127Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (20 Jun, 21 Jun) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (22 Jun) with the arrival of a
geoeffective high speed solar wind stream.
III. Event probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
Class M 45/35/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jun 111
Predicted 20 Jun-22 Jun 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 19 Jun 137
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun 013/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jun 007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun 005/005-006/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun-22 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/20
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/10/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/20
Radio Events Observed 19 Jun 2014
A. 245 MHz Bursts
Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak Duration
0331 0331 110 0331 0000
B. 245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales
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