Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
23/1444Z from Region 2093 (S09W32). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Jun,
25 Jun, 26 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 380 km/s at
22/2221Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 160 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (24 Jun, 25 Jun) and
quiet levels on day three (26 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Jun 093
Predicted   24 Jun-26 Jun 095/100/100
90 Day Mean        23 Jun 135

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun  007/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jun  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun  010/015-013/015-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/25/15
Minor Storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    25/20/05

WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2014 Jun 23 2250 UTC
Valid To: 2014 Jun 23 2325 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2014 Jun 23 2202 UTC

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2014 Jun 23 2308 UTC
Deviation: 34 nT
Station: Boulder

Radio Events Observed 23 Jun 2014
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0730   0730    150          0730        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.

**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****

Summary For June 16-22

G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions were observed on 18 June.

No R1 or greater radio blackouts were observed.

No S1 or greater solar radiation storms were observed.

Outlook For June 23-29

No G1 or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.

No R1 or greater radio blackouts are expected.

No S1 or greater solar radiation storms are expected.