Global solar demand remains strong

March 25, 2014 | By

Demand outlook for the solar industry remains strong, and global solar installations will be around 46 GW in 2014, according to a forecast from Mercom Capital Group. Other research also forecasts global installations in 2013 to come in at about 37 GW. The forecast has recently been revised to reflect shifting market conditions and China's new installation goal.

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"China recently announced an aggressive 14 GW installation goal, a 2 GW increase since our previous update in December 2013," Raj Prabhu, CEO and co-founder of Mercom Capital Group, said.

Within the new 14 GW goal, China has set an aggressive 8 GW target for distributed generation and another 6 GW for utility-scale projects. 

Mercom forecasts that Japan will install similar amounts of solar (7 to 7.5 GW) to last year. Japan faces some challenges -- one of which is the fact that the country's feed-in-tariff (FIT) is likely to be reduced in the next month, along with a three percent sales tax increase.

The U.S. solar market is expected to install 6.4 GW in 2014, spurred by utility-scale projects and an energetic residential sector, according to Mercom. Solar lease has been the big driver of residential installations, with third party finance companies raising $3.3 billion in residential and commercial tax equity funds in 2013. Innovative financial instruments, including asset-backed securities, third party finance and YieldCos, are helping bring the cost of capital down.

PV installations in Germany will be around 2.75 GW in 2014, Mercom says, as Germany's role in the solar market continues to decline along with policy support, including a proposal to replace the FiT with a tender system in 2017.

The United Kingdom and India, both of which installed approximately 1 GW in 2013, and are expected to install similar numbers in 2014, according to Mercom.

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