Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 62 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Mar 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
03/1558Z from Region 1989 (N08W42). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(04 Mar, 05 Mar, 06 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
377 km/s at 03/0029Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 03/0245Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 03/0114Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12 pfu at
02/2105Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (04 Mar, 05 Mar, 06
Mar). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (04 Mar, 05 Mar, 06 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Mar 161
Predicted   04 Mar-06 Mar 160/160/155
90 Day Mean        03 Mar 160

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Mar  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Mar  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05

Radio Events Observed 03 Mar 2014
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0747   0747    160          0747        0000  
0758   0758    270          0758        0000  
1139   1140    210          1139        0001  
1446   1446    120          1446        0000  
1446   1446    100          1446        0000  
1529   1529    110          1529        0000  
1609   1610    3400         1609        0001  
1927   1927    320          1927        0000  
2053   2053    120          2053        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.

**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****

Summary For February 24-March 2

An R3 (Strong) radio blackout occurred on 25/0049 UTC from an X4/2b flare from Region 1990.
An S1 (Minor) radiation storm began at 25/1355 UTC, reached S2 (Moderate) levels on 28/0835 UTC, and ended at 03/0150 UTC.
A G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm occurred on 27/1800-2100 UTC when the CME associated with the R3 flare arrived.

Outlook For March 3-9

R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a chance for an R3 (Strong) event, throughout the forecast period.
There is a chance for an S1 (minor) radiation storm during the forecast period.
No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected in the absence of any transient features.

Data used to provide space weather services are contributed by NOAA,
USAF, NASA, NSF, USGS, the International Space Environment Services 
and other observatories, universities, and institutions. More 
information is available at SWPC's Web site http://swpc.noaa.gov