Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 72 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at
12/2234Z from Region 1996 (N14W78). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(14 Mar, 15 Mar, 16 Mar) because there are large, magnetically complex
regions on the disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 504 km/s at 13/2055Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 13/0120Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 12/2313Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Mar) and quiet levels
on days two and three (15 Mar, 16 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
Class M 80/80/80
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Mar 148
Predicted 14 Mar-16 Mar 145/145/140
90 Day Mean 13 Mar 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar NA/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar 011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar 006/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/05/05
Radio Events Observed 13 Mar 2014
A. 245 MHz Bursts
Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak Duration
0053 0054 110 0054 0001
0057 0059 180 0057 0002
0101 0101 100 0101 0000
0141 0142 180 0141 0001
0532 0533 140 0532 0001
0846 0846 100 0846 0000
0920 0920 260 0920 0000
0953 0953 100 0953 0000
B. 245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales
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