Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 79 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M1 event observed at
20/0356Z from Region 2010 (S15E25). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Mar, 22 Mar,
23 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 360 km/s at
20/0801Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 20/0820Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -7 nT at 20/0908Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (21 Mar, 22 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (23 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Mar 151
Predicted   21 Mar-23 Mar 150/150/145
90 Day Mean        20 Mar 157

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar  006/005-006/005-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/20

Radio Events Observed 20 Mar 2014
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0157   0157    100          0157        0000  
0440   0440    1200         0440        0000  
0657   0657    180          0657        0000  
0816   0816    150          0816        0000  
1216   1217    200          1217        0001  
1657   1657    160          1657        0000  
1902   1902    110          1902        0000  
2300   2300    130          2300        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.

**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK **** Summary For March 10-16 Category R1 (Minor) radio blackouts were observed from 10 - 13 March due to flare activity from active solar Regions 1991, 1996 and 2002. A Category R2 (Moderate) radio blackout was observed on 12 March due to flare activity from active solar Region 1996. Category G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms were observed on 13 March due to coronal hole high speed stream activity. Outlook For March 17-23 A chance for Category R1 (Minor) radio blackouts exists on 23 March as old Region 1991 rotates back onto the visible disk.