Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 83 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 24/0010Z from Region 2014 (S14E06). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Mar, 26 Mar, 27 Mar). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 521 km/s at 23/2318Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (26 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (27 Mar). III. Event probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar Class M 45/45/45 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 24 Mar 159 Predicted 25 Mar-27 Mar 160/165/160 90 Day Mean 24 Mar 158 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Mar 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar 008/008-011/012-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/30/05 Minor Storm 01/10/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/30/15 Major-severe storm 20/40/05 Radio Events Observed 23 Mar 2014 A. 245 MHz Bursts No 245 MHz Burst Observed. B. 245 MHz Noise Storms No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed. SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #14-12
For current space weather conditions please refer to:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/index.html#SolarRadiationStorms NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales
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