Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
12/0642Z from Region 2059 (S01W07). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (13 May, 14 May, 15 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
479 km/s at 12/0637Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/2326Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 11/2300Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 161 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (13 May) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (14 May, 15 May).

III.  Event probabilities 13 May-15 May
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 May 163
Predicted   13 May-15 May 165/170/170
90 Day Mean        12 May 150

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May  010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May  006/007-008/005-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/30/30
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/30/30
Major-severe storm    05/35/35

Radio Events Observed 12 May 2014
A.  245 MHz Bursts
No 245 MHz Burst Observed.
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.