Coal forecast: No need for new NW terminals

Nov 20 - Seattle Times (WA)

U.S. coal exports have plummeted from their 2012 peaks, making it more difficult to make the case for building new export terminals in Washington and Oregon , according to a report released Wednesday by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis .

"There is simply too much port capacity in the United States , and not enough demand," said Tom Sanzillo , the author of the report.

Sanzillo forecasts that total U.S. coal exports this year may not exceed 80 million tons, down from a peak of 125.6 million tons in 2012. At that level, U.S. coal-export terminals this year would be operating at only 34 percent of capacity.

Coal prices on export markets also have dropped sharply from 2012 levels, and the long-term prospect for a price rebound has dimmed as international coal growth has slowed, Sanzillo said. All of this weakens the financial viability of the two major coal-export terminals proposed for Longview and Cherry Point , as well as a smaller facility proposed for Oregon , he said.

The Ohio -based institute that employs Sanzillo has frequently undertaken critical examinations of the coal industry and previously worked under contract for Power Past Coal, a coalition opposed to building new export terminals in the Northwest.

Sanzillo released the report in Seattle at the office of Climate Solutions, a member of the Power Past Coal coalition.

Proponents of the coal-export terminals on Monday contested the report's findings. They have a much more bullish outlook on the future of international coal markets and prospects for U.S. coal exports.

"Our members believe that privately funded terminals in the Northwest will grow trade for the entire region and play a critical role in responsibly meeting the global energy demand for years to come," said a statement released by the Alliance For Northwest Jobs & Exports, which represents companies, labor groups and other organizations that support construction of the terminals.

Hal Bernton : 206-464-2581 or hbernton@seattletimes.com

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