Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
03/1153Z from the northeast limb. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot
regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Nov, 05 Nov,
06 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached 515 km/s at
02/2137Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 02/2142Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 03/0138Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit briefly reached a peak level of 10 pfu at
02/2110Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 386 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (04 Nov, 06
Nov) and quiet to active levels on day two (05 Nov). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (04
Nov) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (05 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     20/10/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Nov 125
Predicted   04 Nov-06 Nov 130/125/125
90 Day Mean        03 Nov 140

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Nov  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov  007/010-009/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/20
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    30/40/30

Radio Events Observed 03 Nov 2014
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0134   0134    120          0134        0000  
0137   0138    240          0137        0001  
0247   0247    110          0247        0000  
0348   0349    2700         0349        0001  
0452   0455    600          0454        0003  
0535   0536    1800         0535        0001  
0720   0720    710          0720        0000  
1227   1232    720          1228        0005  
1342   1343    280          1342        0001  
1531   1531    2100         1531        0000  
1535   1535    150          1535        0000  
1926   1926    140          1926        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak
0316   0748    240          0350