Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
06/0346Z from Region 2205 (N15E46). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Nov, 08
Nov, 09 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
575 km/s at 05/2123Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 06/1137Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 06/2047Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (07 Nov,
08 Nov, 09 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (07 Nov, 08 Nov, 09 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Nov 136
Predicted   07 Nov-09 Nov 135/140/140
90 Day Mean        06 Nov 140

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov  013/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov  007/008-007/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    30/30/30

Radio Events Observed 06 Nov 2014
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
2207   2207    190          2207        0000  
2214   2214    460          2214        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.