Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
17/0907Z from Region 2205 (now around the west limb). There are
currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Nov, 19
Nov, 20 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
557 km/s at 17/0331Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 17/1906Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 17/1903Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5723 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Nov), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (19 Nov) and unsettled levels on day three (20 Nov).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (18 Nov, 19 Nov, 20 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
Class M    65/65/65
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Nov 168
Predicted   18 Nov-20 Nov 170/170/170
90 Day Mean        17 Nov 145

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov  018/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov  010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov  009/010-007/010-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/30
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    25/25/40

Radio Events Observed 17 Nov 2014
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0447   0447    180          0447        0000  
0733   0733    100          0733        0000  
0804   0804    120          0804        0000  
0945   0946    170          0946        0001  
1112   1112    110          1112        0000  
1142   1142    110          1142        0000  
1215   1215    100          1215        0000  
1223   1223    110          1223        0000  
1346   1346    120          1346        0000  
1353   1353    150          1353        0000  
1422   1422    140          1422        0000  
1422   1422    130          1422        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 2138
Issue Time: 2014 Nov 18 0716 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2137
Begin Time: 2014 Nov 16 1315 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 5723 pfu