Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
24/0137Z from Region 2216 (S14E13). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov, 27 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
460 km/s at 24/0529Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 23/2144Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 24/1147Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 887 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov, 27
Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one and two (25 Nov, 26 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Nov 170
Predicted   25 Nov-27 Nov 155/145/145
90 Day Mean        24 Nov 148

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov  009/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Nov  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov  005/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10

Radio Events Observed 24 Nov 2014
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0455   0455    950          0455        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.