US Republican victory may have muted oil, gas impact
Washington (Platts)--5Nov2014/423 pm EST/2123 GMT
A sweeping Republican victory in Tuesday's US midterm elections will
likely bring some legislative priorities of the oil and natural gas
industry to the House and Senate floors, such as approving the Keystone
XL pipeline, rolling back air quality regulations for oil refineries and
expanding drilling in both federal lands and waters.
But while they expanded their majority in the House of Representatives
and gained their first Senate majority since 2006, Republicans will
still lack enough votes to overcome a Senate filibuster on a party-line
basis and the two-thirds majority to override a veto from President
Barack Obama, limiting the scope of possible energy policy movement.
Perhaps the most profound impact of Tuesday night's election results for
the oil and gas industry will be the agenda set by likely Senate
Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who easily was reelected as Kentucky's
senior senator, and Senator Lisa Murkowski, an Alaska Republican who is
expected to become chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources
Committee.
McConnell is expected to use Senate budget proceedings to curb financial
and environmental regulations put in place by Obama over the past six
years. He is likely to shepherd fossil fuel-friendly votes, such as
approval of Keystone XL and US LNG exports, which current Majority
Leader Harry Reid, a Nevada Democrat, had previously blocked.
In an election roundup note, analysts with ClearView Energy Partners
speculated that with a Nebraska Supreme Court decision on Keystone XL's
route expected late this year, the US State Department could approve the
pipeline before the 114th Congress begins in January "to rob the GOP of
an early-session victory lap (or, less cynically, as an olive branch to
the new Republican leadership)."
Keystone observers have noted that Republican Senate victories in
Colorado, Iowa, South Dakota and West Virginia have pushed the number of
senators publicly backing the pipeline to 61 votes, above the 60-vote
filibuster threshold -- though still shy of the 67 needed to override an
Obama veto.
CRUDE EXPORTS TO THE FOREFRONT?
Murkowski's ascension from the ranking member seat to chair of the
Senate Energy Committee may not initially mark much of a shift in the
committee's focus. It is currently chaired by Senator Mary Landrieu, a
Louisiana Democrat who has gone to great pains to show her support of
the oil and gas industry during her re-election campaign.
Landrieu's race against her Republican challenger, Representative Bill
Cassidy, will go to a December 6 runoff. Should Landrieu lose, Maria
Cantwell, a Washington Democrat, and Bernie Sanders, a Vermont
independent who caucuses with Democrats, are next in line to assume her
seat as the committee's ranking member. Neither have been very
supportive of oil and gas industry priorities.
That could set up an interesting dilemma for the oil and gas industry on
who to support in the Louisiana runoff, as both Landrieu and Cassidy
have touted their industry-friendly credentials in their campaigns.
Jack Gerard, head of the American Petroleum Institute, declined to say
whether his trade association would prefer a Landrieu or Cassidy
victory.
"I suspect moving forward you'll see similar to what you've seen in the
past, with some supporting Senator Landrieu and some supporting
Cassidy," he said in a briefing with reporters.
Murkowski, meanwhile, has made no secret of her congressional energy
priorities and has become Capitol Hill's leading voice in calling for
the US to drop its nearly 40-year-old restrictions on crude oil exports.
Murkowski has not said if or when she may introduce legislation on that
issue. Several Republican lawmakers have said they are hesitant to
support a change to export policy since it could be perceived as
influencing US gasoline prices.
Gerard, whose trade group supports lifting the export restrictions, said
he is hopeful that with Murkowski leading the Senate energy committee,
the issue will rise to the forefront.
"Ultimately we need to build a consensus on the question and then change
the law," he said.
Representative Fred Upton, a Michigan Republican who is expected to
remain chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee in the next
Congress, said he is still studying the export policy issue and has yet
to decide if he supports a change.
COMMITTEE CHANGES
Murkowski may attempt to move the Fixing America's Inequities with
Revenues Act (S. 630), which she introduced with Landrieu in March.
The bill, which does not have support from the Obama administration,
would give coastal states as much as 37.5% of revenues for offshore
energy projects. It would also give states 50% of revenues from solar,
wind and other renewable energy projects on federal lands, mirroring the
current revenue-sharing program for onshore coal, oil and natural gas.
A much more striking change will be seen in the Senate Environment and
Public Works Committee where Senator Jim Inhofe, an Oklahoma Republican
and author of a book calling climate change a hoax, is slated to replace
Senator Barbara Boxer, a California Democrat, as committee chairman.
Inhofe supports legislation to repeal or reform biofuels mandates in the
Renewable Fuels Standard, but these efforts may be complicated since
opposition to the RFS does not fall cleanly down party lines.
--Brian Scheid,
brian.scheid@platts.com
--Herman Wang,
herman.wang@platts.com
--Edited by Derek Sands,
derek.sands@platts.com
© 2014 Platts, The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc. All rights reserved.
To subscribe or visit go to:
http://www.platts.com
http://www.platts.com/latest-news/oil/washington/analysis-us-republican-victory-may-have-muted-21509695
|