Closing nuclear plants would be costly

Oct 22 - News-Gazette (Champaign-Urbana, IL)

A new study from the Nuclear Energy Institute says Illinois could lose $3.6 billion in output and as many as 13,300 jobs if Exelon Corp.'s Clinton , Byron and the Quad Cities nuclear plants close prematurely.

The Washington, D.C. -based research group said "a combination of economic and policy factors has created potentially fatal economic headwinds for these three plants." As part of the study, the group calculated the effects on the Illinois economy if the plants closed in 2016 _ eight to 16 years before their licenses are scheduled to expire.

The institute said 2,500 jobs would be lost at the three nuclear plants if they were to close. But the closings would also result in the losses of jobs in other industries. The institute figures more than 9,000 jobs would be lost in Illinois the first year, and that number would rise to 13,300 by the fifth year.

"This is because it would take several years before the lost output from Byron , Clinton and the Quad Cities filters completely through the local and state economies," the study said.

According to figures provided by Exelon Corp. earlier this year, the Clinton plant employs 652 people.

But when secondary job losses are calculated, Clinton's closing in 2016 could result in the loss of 2,555 jobs in 2020, the institute said. Nearly a quarter of those jobs would be in the construction field.

The institute said Clinton , Byron and the Quad Cities "are at significant risk of premature retirement because of a perfect storm of economic challenges _ sluggish economy, historically low natural gas prices and the unintended consequences of current energy policies."

A nuclear power plant shutdown has an economic impact that extends beyond the plant because workers and families move away in search of new jobs, the study said.

"By 2030, about 17,000 people are estimated to move out of the state," the report said. "It's not until 2040 (about 25 years after the plants retire) that population migration stabilizes around the plants and in Illinois ."

"The loss of the three nuclear power plants has lasting, negative economic ramifications," it added. "Losses would reverberate for decades after the plants shut down, and host communities may never fully recover."

Because the Clinton plant is a major DeWitt County employer, it's reasonable to assume that many residents would migrate from there to other parts of the state, the study said.

The report quantified the loss of output from the three plants. It said the initial output loss to Illinois would be $3.6 billion , and that loss would increase annually to $4.8 billion in 2030.

The institute also said that to make up for lost nuclear energy capacity, Illinois would likely have to boost its carbon-dioxide emissions.

Exelon has a total of six nuclear energy plants in Illinois _ Braidwood , Byron , Clinton , Dresden, LaSalle and the Quad Cities. Five of those plants have two reactors each; Clinton is the only plant with one reactor. The six nuclear plants generate about 48 percent of the state's electricity and about 90 percent of the state's carbon-free electricity.

Altogether, Exelon employs 5,900 at its nuclear facilities in Illinois . Those employees earned, on average, $105,300 in 2012, excluding benefits.

The Exelon plants pay about $1.1 billion in federal taxes and $290 million in state and local taxes each year.

The Nuclear Energy Institute said it conducted the analysis based on Exelon data covering employment, operating expenditures, revenues and tax payments. To estimate the economic impact, the institute used the Policy Insight Plus modeling system developed by Regional Economic Models Inc.

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