Report of Solar Geophysical ActivityJoint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at 02/1901Z from Region 2173 (S13W85). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (03 Oct, 04 Oct) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (05 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 415 km/s at 02/1646Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 02/0326Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 02/1515Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1110 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (03 Oct, 05 Oct) and quiet levels on day two (04 Oct). III. Event probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct Class M 45/35/20 Class X 05/01/01 Proton 05/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 02 Oct 149 Predicted 03 Oct-05 Oct 145/140/140 90 Day Mean 02 Oct 135 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 007/008-005/005-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/15/20 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/20/25 Major-severe storm 25/20/25 Radio Events Observed 02 Oct 2014 A. 245 MHz Bursts No 245 MHz Burst Observed. B. 245 MHz Noise Storms No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.
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