Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
06/1707Z from Region 2185 (S14E43). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct, 09 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
453 km/s at 05/2345Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 06/0945Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 06/0059Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 323 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct, 09
Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Oct 130
Predicted   07 Oct-09 Oct 125/125/125
90 Day Mean        06 Oct 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20

Radio Events Observed 06 Oct 2014
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0136   0136    100          0136        0000  
0305   0305    120          0305        0000  
1640   1640    110          1640        0000  
2007   2007    100          2007        0000  
2010   2010    110          2010        0000  
2013   2013    110          2013        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.