Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
16/1303Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct,
19 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 492 km/s at
16/1500Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 16/0313Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 16/2013Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (17 Oct, 18 Oct)
and quiet levels on day three (19 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Oct 139
Predicted   17 Oct-19 Oct 150/160/170
90 Day Mean        16 Oct 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct  008/008-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    30/30/30

Radio Events Observed 16 Oct 2014
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0103   0103    170          0103        0000  
0105   0105    150          0105        0000  
0117   0118    170          0117        0001  
0229   0229    110          0229        0000  
0245   0245    140          0245        0000  
0704   0704    650          0704        0000  
0719   0719    120          0719        0000  
0846   0849    200          0846        0003  
1103   1104    230          1104        0001  
1110   1111    200          1110        0001  
1200   1201    120          1200        0001  
1232   1233    400          1232        0001  
1301   1302    9000         1301        0001  
1435   1435    450          1435        0000  
1447   1447    190          1447        0000  
1801   1801    150          1801        0000  
1909   1909    150          1909        0000  
1952   1953    140          1953        0001  
2004   2004    120          2004        0000  
2004   2004    120          2004        0000  
2024   2024    1000         2024        0000  
2029   2035    310          2030        0006  
2038   2039    150          2039        0001  
2044   2044    140          2044        0000  
2042   2042    130          2042        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak
1452   1630    470          1457