Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at
27/1447Z from Region 2192 (S12W59). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be high on
days one, two, and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct, 30 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
476 km/s at 27/0417Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 27/1649Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 27/1735Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 758 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (28 Oct,
29 Oct, 30 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days
one, two, and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct, 30 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
Class M    85/85/85
Class X    55/55/55
Proton     45/45/45
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Oct 188
Predicted   28 Oct-30 Oct 165/150/140
90 Day Mean        27 Oct 142

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct  011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct  011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct  008/012-008/010-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/25/20

**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****

Summary For October 20-26

Category R1 (Minor) radio blackouts were observed on 21-24 October and again on 26 October.  A category R2 (Moderate) radio blackout was observed on 22 October.  Category R3 (Strong) radio blackouts were observed on 22 and 24-26 October.  Radio blackouts were due to flaring activity from Region 2192.

Category G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming was observed on 20 October due to coronal hole high speed stream activity.

Outlook For October 27-November 2

Category R1-R3 (Minor-Strong) radio blackouts are likely from 27-30 October due to potential significant flare activity from Region 2192.

There is a chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm from 27-31 October due to potential significant flare activity from Region 2192.

Data used to provide space weather services are contributed by NOAA,
USAF, NASA, NSF, USGS, the International Space Environment Services 
and other observatories, universities, and institutions. More 
information is available at SWPC's Web site http://swpc.noaa.gov