Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
24/2342Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (26 Sep, 27 Sep, 28 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
513 km/s at 25/0342Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 25/0233Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 25/0245Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 758 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (26 Sep, 27
Sep, 28 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Sep 158
Predicted   26 Sep-28 Sep 165/165/165
90 Day Mean        25 Sep 134

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep  019/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Sep  013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep  010/012-011/015-011/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    50/50/50