Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
01/0744Z from Region 2149 (N09W77). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (02 Sep, 03
Sep) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (04 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
508 km/s at 01/0750Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 01/2043Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 01/0329Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3504 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (02 Sep,
03 Sep, 04 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
Class M    20/20/35
Class X    01/01/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Sep 127
Predicted   02 Sep-04 Sep 125/125/115
90 Day Mean        01 Sep 129

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug  013/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep  011/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep  008/008-008/008-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/25
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/20

Radio Events Observed 01 Sep 2014
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0023   0023    110          0023        0000  
0641   0641    140          0641        0000  
0932   0932    110          0932        0000  
1101   1106    180          1102        0005  
1320   1320    100          1320        0000  
2251   2251    100          2251        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak
0937   0949    200          0949