Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 251 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
08/0011Z from Region 2157 (S14E17). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Sep, 10
Sep, 11 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 493 km/s at
08/0540Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 07/2126Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 08/0613Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5 pfu at 07/2300Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (09 Sep, 10 Sep)
and quiet levels on day three (11 Sep). Protons have a chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (09 Sep, 10 Sep, 11 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     30/30/30
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Sep 164
Predicted   09 Sep-11 Sep 160/162/162
90 Day Mean        08 Sep 130

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep  010/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Sep  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep  008/008-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20

Radio Events Observed 08 Sep 2014
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0009   0010    750          0010        0001  
0022   0022    250          0022        0000  
0304   0304    190          0304        0000  
0826   0826    150          0826        0000  
1637   1638    170          1638        0001  
1844   1845    130          1844        0001  
1934   1934    150          1934        0000  
2010   2010    120          2010        0000  
2209   2210    120          2210        0001  
2326   2326    130          2326        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak
0826   0941    220          0847