Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was an X1/2b event observed at
10/1745Z from Region 2158 (N15E00). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Sep, 12
Sep, 13 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
396 km/s at 10/1533Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 10/2038Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 10/1917Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at
09/2125Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 212 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (11 Sep), quiet to major storm levels
on day two (12 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (13
Sep). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (11 Sep, 12 Sep, 13 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep
Class M    85/85/85
Class X    40/40/40
Proton     30/30/30
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Sep 160
Predicted   11 Sep-13 Sep 160/165/165
90 Day Mean        10 Sep 129

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep  008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Sep  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep  006/005-021/032-018/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/45
Minor Storm           05/45/25
Major-severe storm    01/20/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/10
Minor Storm           20/15/25
Major-severe storm    20/79/70

Radio Events Observed 10 Sep 2014
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0244   0244    470          0244        0000  
0513   0513    440          0513        0000  
1217   1217    100          1217        0000  
1432   1434    100          1434        0002  
1849   1922    720          1908        0033  
1726   1922    3800         1747        0116  
1939   2006    810          1945        0027  
2105   2107    340          2105        0002  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Sep 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
11/1526Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Sep, 13
Sep, 14 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
404 km/s at 11/0248Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 10/2252Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 11/0356Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 28 pfu at
11/0515Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 154 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (12 Sep), active to
severe storm levels on day two (13 Sep) and unsettled to minor storm
levels on day three (14 Sep). Protons are expected to cross threshold on
days one and two (12 Sep, 13 Sep) and are expected to cross threshold on
day three (14 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep
Class M    85/85/85
Class X    50/50/50
Proton     99/99/90
PCAF       red

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Sep 151
Predicted   12 Sep-14 Sep 152/150/150
90 Day Mean        11 Sep 129

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Sep  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Sep  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep  028/040-037/060-018/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/45
Minor Storm           45/40/30
Major-severe storm    25/45/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/01/05
Minor Storm           15/10/20
Major-severe storm    85/90/75

SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2014 Sep 11 2346 UTC
Deviation: 33 nT
Station: Boulder

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Radio Events Observed 11 Sep 2014
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0233   0233    290          0233        0000  
2232   2233    100          2233        0001  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.