Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Sep 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
18/0841Z from Region 2169 (N05E53). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Sep,
20 Sep, 21 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
424 km/s at 17/2242Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 17/2316Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 18/1828Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 Sep, 20 Sep, 21
Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Sep 120
Predicted   19 Sep-21 Sep 120/115/115
90 Day Mean        18 Sep 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Sep  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Sep  004/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Sep-21 Sep  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    20/20/15

Radio Events Observed 18 Sep 2014
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0615   0615    100          0615        0000  
0707   0708    970          0707        0001  
0721   0721    400          0721        0000  
0808   0808    1000         0808        0000  
0839   0844    16000        0839        0005  
1225   1225    110          1225        0000  
1727   1731    760          1727        0004  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.