Report of Solar Geophysical ActivityJoint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Sep, 24 Sep, 25 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 504 km/s at 22/0035Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 22/1508Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/1559Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 22/1300Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 178 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (23 Sep, 24 Sep, 25 Sep). III. Event probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep Class M 30/30/30 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 22 Sep 130 Predicted 23 Sep-25 Sep 130/135/135 90 Day Mean 22 Sep 132 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 007/010-008/010-007/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/25/30 Minor Storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 40/40/40 Radio Events Observed 22 Sep 2014 A. 245 MHz Bursts No 245 MHz Burst Observed. B. 245 MHz Noise Storms No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.
For current space weather conditions please refer to:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/index.html#SolarRadiationStorms NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales
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