Report of Solar Geophysical Activity

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
29/0554Z from Region 2177 (N11E31). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(30 Sep, 01 Oct, 02 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
408 km/s at 28/2106Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 29/2100Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/1647Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1496 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for isolated active
periods on days one, two, and three (30 Sep, 01 Oct, 02 Oct). Protons
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three
(30 Sep, 01 Oct, 02 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Sep 175
Predicted   30 Sep-02 Oct 185/185/175
90 Day Mean        29 Sep 136

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct  007/010-007/008-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/25
Minor Storm           10/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/25/35
Radio Events Observed 29 Sep 2014
A.  245 MHz Bursts
Start  End   Peak Flux  Time of Peak  Duration
0404   0404    110          0404        0000  
0823   0823    160          0823        0000  
0937   0938    160          0938        0001  
1326   1326    110          1326        0000  
B.  245 MHz Noise Storms
No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at

www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales