Report of Solar Geophysical ActivityJoint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 29/0554Z from Region 2177 (N11E31). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Sep, 01 Oct, 02 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 408 km/s at 28/2106Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 29/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/1647Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1496 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for isolated active periods on days one, two, and three (30 Sep, 01 Oct, 02 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (30 Sep, 01 Oct, 02 Oct). III. Event probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct Class M 75/75/75 Class X 20/20/20 Proton 20/20/20 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 Sep 175 Predicted 30 Sep-02 Oct 185/185/175 90 Day Mean 29 Sep 136 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct 007/010-007/008-007/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/20/25 Minor Storm 10/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/25 Major-severe storm 40/25/35 Radio Events Observed 29 Sep 2014 A. 245 MHz Bursts Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak Duration 0404 0404 110 0404 0000 0823 0823 160 0823 0000 0937 0938 160 0938 0001 1326 1326 110 1326 0000 B. 245 MHz Noise Storms No 245 MHz Noise Storms Observed.
For current space weather conditions please refer to:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/index.html#SolarRadiationStorms NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales
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