A new study by Lux Research estimates the worldwide solar market to grow by 75 % to a global capacity addition of 65.6 GW in 2019. This will be achieved by a yearly average growth of 8 % and despite new challenges such as global policy changes.

After adding 11.8 GW new solar installations in 2013 and becoming the biggest solar market worldwide, China will also be the leading force of the new growth. “With solar now fairly common in most parts of the world, it reaps the rewards of direct incentives but also faces uncertainty due to pressure on trade activity with China,” explained Matthew Feinstein, Senior Analyst at Lux Research and lead author of the report. While the solar market in the Asia-Pacific region will only grow with a combined annual growth rate of 8.2 %, it will account for more than half of the global demand.

The fastest growth will be seen in the Americas, with an expected compound annual growth rate of 16.3 %. The study estimates that the market will nearly triple, from 5.4 GW new installations in 2013 to an installation rate of 15.4 GW in 2019. During this time, the US will go from 4.7 to 11.7 GW, while South America will grow tenfold to a capacity addition of 2.5 GW in 2019.

Since 2012, module supplier margins have risen again. According to the report, the leading solar market suppliers had margins around 10 % in 2013 and 15 % in the first quarter of 2014.

In addition to a global market outlook, the report also gives an analysis of cost cuts and increasing efficiency in the production of solar modules. Moreover the authors explain why crystalline silicone will be most important for the solar market, despite the fact that other technologies could show their potential.

You can find the full report here: “Solar Market Size Update 2014: Reform for the Long Haul” (only registered Lux Research members).

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