Author: Weather 2000

Indian Summer warmth across MidWest, portends harsh Autumn.....

--> Balmy Ridging: warms surface layer of Great Lakes...ideal for Lake Effect Snow Season, and spring-loads Polar Air up in Canada.....

WP & EP-NP (not Polar Vortex), driving 7 Seasons of MidWest cool......

--> Coolest such 1.5 Year period since 1996-97, means late-October HDDs + 'Effect' Snows will minimize any "Shoulder Season" yet again....

Official ONI remains locked in Neutral state, now into 2014 Autumn........

--> Our 10-Year "Seasonal Shift" research, and Vendors' misunderstanding of IOD & "Modoki", will lead to impactful Fall/Winter surprises.....

Historic/Record Drought in West is a major thermodynamic force.....

--> Sustainment of historic hot Summer, enhancement of Autumn Santa Ana Heat-spike Events, and support for overnight radiational cooling.....

January 2013 - September 23, 2014 was #1 Driest 21 Months in recorded history for:

San Francisco, CA

Fresno , CA

Redding , CA

Eureka, CA

Long Beach, CA

January 2013 - September 10, 2014 was Top-3 Driest 21 Months in recorded history for:

Los Angeles [LAX], CA { driest period since 1948 }

San Diego, CA { driest period since 2007 }

Bakersfield, CA { driest period since 2008 }

Sacramento, CA  { driest period since 1977 }

Medford, OR { driest period since 1977 }

2014-to-Date is now Top-10 Driest start to a Year in recorded history for:

Las Vegas, NV { driest period since 2008 }

Dallas, TX { driest period since 1980 }

Abilene, TX { driest period since 2011 }

Tulsa, OK { driest period since 1996 }

June 1st -to-Date is now Top-10 Driest Summer in recorded history for:

Tallahassee, FL { driest Summer ever }

Jacksonville, FL

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ENSO STATUS SCORECARD [09/23]:

--> ENSO Status: * Neutral *

--> ONI: 0.2 [Need ONI (not weekly values) >  0.6 to satisfy minimum NOAA El Niño Event criterion.]

 

--> NINO 3.4 SSTA Monthly Trend: Warming

ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON SCORECARD [09/23]:

NOTE: The protocol & psychology follows the same routine: (1) An "Invest" gets posted, (2) buzz is generated, (3) models are run, (4) but in reality classifications take place, if at all, several Days later (sometimes sooner if very close to North America land masses).

New Development Risk (in coming week):  High

--> Gulf of Mexico across entire Basin

Currently Active Storms: None

Next Invest designation in sequence would be: 96L

Next Storm Name in sequence would be: Fay

Named Storms to-date: 5 { 6 classified systems }

--> AVERAGE Named Storms to-date: 7

--> Named Storms in 2013 to-date: 9

Hurricanes to-date: 4 { First time since 1983/1980 that each of first 3 Named Storms of Season all became Hurricanes }

--> AVERAGE Hurricanes to-date: 4

--> AVERAGE date of 5th Hurricane: October 7th

--> Hurricanes in 2013 to-date: 2

Major Hurricanes to-date: 1

--> AVERAGE Major Hurricanes to-date: 1

--> AVERAGE date of 2nd Major Hurricane: October 3rd

--> Major Hurricanes in 2013 to-date: 0

Maximum sustained winds of any Storm this year: 115 mph

Maximum sustained winds of any USA Land-Falling Storm this year: 100 mph

ATLANTIC HURRICANE LANDFALL SCORECARD [09/23]:

--> Days elapsed since last USA Hurricane (Arthur 2014) Landfall : 82 [ 2 Months, 20 Days]

--> Days elapsed since last  Gulf/Southeast [BRO to ILM] Hurricane (Isaac 2012) Landfall: 756 [ 2 Years, 0 Months, 26 Days]

--> Days elapsed since last USA CAT-3 Major Hurricane (Wilma 2005) Landfall: 3,256 [ 8 Years, 10 Months, 30 Days]

{Additional CAT-3 landfalls 1984 - 2005: Rita, 2005; Katrina 2005; Dennis 2005; Jeanne, 2004; Ivan, 2004; Bret, 1999; Fran, 1996; Opal, 1995; Andrew, 1992 (2nd landfall); Gloria, 1985}

--> Days elapsed since last USA CAT-4 Major Hurricane (Charley 2004) Landfall: 3,693 [ 10 Years, 1 Month, 10 Days]

{Additional CAT-4 landfalls 1984 - 2004: Hugo, 1989}

--> Days elapsed since last USA CAT-5 Major Hurricane (Andrew 1992) Landfall: 8,065 [ 22 Years, 0 Months, 30 Days]

{Additional CAT-5 landfalls 1984 - 1992: None}

Special Summation of Record-setting 2014 East Pacific Hurricane Season.....

--> 2nd earliest Major Hurricane on record { Hurricane Amanda, May 24th }

--> Strongest May Hurricane on record  { Cat-4 Hurricane Amanda }

--> Most Category 4 Hurricanes before July 1st on record { Cat-4 Hurricanes Amanda & Cristina }

--> Strongest hurricane to make landfall in the state of Baja California Sur { 125 mph, Hurricane Odile, ties with Hurricane Olivia (1967) }

--> Lowest pressure landfalling hurricane in Eastern Pacific on record { 930mb, Hurricane Odile }

--> Strongest tropical cyclone on record to strike the Big Island of Hawaii { Tropical Storm Iselle }

EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON SCORECARD [09/23]:

Currently Active Storms: None

Next Storm Name in sequence would be: Rachel

Named Storms to-date: 17 { 18 classified systems }

--> AVERAGE Named Storms to-date: 12

--> RECORD Named Storms to-date: 21 { 1992 }

--> Named Storms in 2013 to-date: 15

Hurricanes to-date: 11

--> AVERAGE Hurricanes to-date: 6

--> RECORD Hurricanes to-date: 13 { 1992 }

--> Hurricanes in 2013 to-date: 7

Major Hurricanes to-date: 8

--> AVERAGE Major Hurricanes to-date: 3

--> RECORD Major Hurricanes to-date: 7 { 1992 }

--> Major Hurricanes in 2013 to-date: 0

Maximum sustained winds of any Storm this year: 160 mph { Cat-5 Hurricanes Genevieve & Marie }

Maximum sustained winds of any USA Land-Falling Storm this year: 125 mph { Cat-3 Hurricane Odile }

TORNADO SEASON [2014] SCORECARD [09/23]:

Preliminary Tornadoes to-date: 741 [currently at 3rd percentile of Normal Annual tallies to-date]

--> Average Tornadoes to-date:  1,150

- Tornado Fatalities:

--> 2011:  553

--> 2012:  70

--> 2013:  55

--> 2014:  44 (preliminary, to-date)

TELECONNECTION & VENDOR SCORECARD [09/23]:

- Variables currently being most incorrectly described, defined or exaggerated (by the commercial forecasting community):

El Niño, Misunderstanding of what "Modoki" means, "Polar Vortex", MJO, Analogs,

- Variables having nothing to do with individual Winter Season temperatures:

Sunspots, Solar Flares, Coronal Mass Ejections, QBO

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Comments on Icelandic Volcanic Eruption Potential [August 16 - September 23 Update]

We have been monitoring the Bardarbunga volcano, located under Iceland's largest glacier. This active volcano sits on the mid-Atlantic Ocean divergent tectonic plate boundary, an active region where Iceland's volcanoes have ejected one third of total global lava output. Large Bardarbunga eruptions occur every 250 - 600 years, with the largest - a Pinatubo-sized VEI (Volcanic Explosivity Index) of 6 - occurring in 1477.

Another VEI-6 eruption in 1783-84 involving Bardarbunga, and nearby Grímsvötn volcano and Laki fissure, release large amounts of hydrofluoric acid and sulfur dioxide, killing 50% of Iceland's livestock and 25% of its human population, and massively impacting regional and global climate. Crop failures in Europe, droughts and famines across African & Indian monsoonal regions, a severe winter across North America, and a global cooling of 1.3° over the following 3 years were among the impacts.

Over the past 7 year, seismic activity at Bardarbunga and nearby Holuhraun lava field has been increasing, with a marked increase in earthquakes since mid-August. Localized fissure eruptions, increased lava field production, and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera have increased odds for a larger caldera eruption. Release of ash and sulfur dioxide have so far been negligible, prompting local pollution warnings and an aviation alert code of 'Orange' [Volcano is exhibiting heightened unrest with increased likelihood of eruption, or, Volcanic eruption is underway with no or minor ash emission].

Comments on New Eruptions at Mayon Volcano in the Philippines [August 12 - September 23 Update]

We have been monitoring the Mayon volcano, located on the island of Luzon in the Philippines. This active volcano sits on the Pacific Ocean's "Ring of Fire", and has erupted over 40 times in the past 400 years. It is the most active volcano in the Philippines. The last eruption was May 7, 2013 (a brief 73 seconds where ash clouds only reached 500 meters - VEI of 2), with another dozen eruptions (VEI's ranging from 0 to 3) since 1999. The largest eruption in February 1, 1814 (VEI of 4) ejected destructive lava and ash, with local ash accumulations of 30' on the ground. Mayon's longest uninterrupted eruption (VEI of 4) lasted 7 days in June of 1897, burying villages in 50' of lava, and ejecting large ash clouds.

Since August 12, 2014, a growing lava dome and increased seismic activity and sulfur dioxide emissions have prompted authorities to raise alert levels and prepare for a potentially hazardous eruption in the next several weeks. Release of sulfur dioxide has so far been negligible.

Remember, each eruption is unique and until the precise amount of ejecta from an eruption is known, specific climate impacts are mere speculation. Solar radiation at the surface would be dimmed over the adjacent region in the vicinity of the volcano. The ash is heavy compared to air, and gravity settles the ash to the ground.  Conversely, climate is affected by the much lighter Sulfur gases emitted from a volcano, which have a much longer residence time in the atmosphere (especially if ejected into the stratosphere).

In areas of greatest deposition, volcanic ash can have a significant impact on agriculture. Its effects on crops is highly dependent on the specific crop and the timing of the ash-fall. For example, the most damage to corn would occur right around the time of pollination. The effects on livestock are more obvious, with grazing animals ingesting ash particles that have settled onto pastures and water supply contamination (under more extreme conditions can lead to fluoride poisoning).

We will continue to monitor the physics & chemistry of this situation - in the case of tropical volcanoes there would be an approximate 8 to 12-month lag-time before Northern Hemispheric impacts, if any, are realized. Short-term forecasters sensationalize each Volcano that makes the news every few months, so a calm, pragmatic and scientific review of their legitimate role and limitations is appropriate:

1.) In order for a Volcano to have weather/climate impacts beyond its region of the World, the erupted particles need to be forcefully ejected through the Tropopause and into the Stratosphere (> 12 km/7.5 mi. for mid-Latitudes and > 17 km/10.5 mi. closer to the Equator), where they can diffuse and eventually have a global reach.

2.) Separately, keep in mind that any Volcanoes located Poleward of 30° have only small impacts on Hemispheric climate.  Unlike Pinatubo and Tungurahua (both located in the Tropics), Volcanoes closer to the Poles will have their contents advected toward either the North or South Pole (depending on the hemisphere the volcano is located).

3.) Regionally, larger soot and erupted particles (> 2.2 µm) are more effective at keeping in Infrared radiation and can impart some warming effects.  Smaller particles (usually containing lots of sulfur) are less effective in the IR spectrum, but stay aloft longer and increase Albedo and hence lead to cooling.  (FYI, Volcanic Ash is not actually ash, but tiny jagged particles of rock and natural glass). After the infamous 1980 Mount Saint Helens eruption it took several weeks to cart away all the Ash & Soot, and until that is done it could be blown around obscuring visibility in much the same way a Forest Fire would.

4.) At the lower levels of the Troposphere, Soot & Ash (if fine enough) could also act as condensation nuclei and perhaps help "feed" regional storm systems during an upcoming Season.  Ionization of the atmosphere is a tertiary impact of this particulate matter that could also translate into increased lightning events during the upcoming Season.  Such particles were detected as far away as New England following the 1980 Mount St. Helens eruption.

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